Tucson Real Estate Blog

September 2008 Statistics…

The September statistics came in  a little higher than I thought for total units sold. It beat last month by 31 units. That is good, but the bad thing is almost every other stat went in the wrong direction for the month of September. Is that bad? Yes, if you are a seller because it is eroding any equity you may have had. No, if you are a buyer as homes are much cheaper than prices in 2004 before the huge 2005 jump in prices. Next month will probably be even harder on the Tucson Housing market.
 

I do believe we are close to the housing price floor. It may take 3-6 months before we really settle down and have gradual price increases,  but it is coming for Tucson. If you are close to foreclosure, try to hang in there, as I see the great possibility of loan and interest adjustments coming. Start talking to your lender if you are having troubles and get their advice on what they think will happen. They may be willing to rework your loan now, into a new FHA loan. It does not hurt to ask, and puts them on notice you are having problems.
 
The Great Bail Out from my perspective was something that needed to be done now, as it takes so long for the Government to get things running and helping people. Many will not get the help because of the time it takes to get the programs working. I do not like the fact that this is having to be done, but it truly is affecting people from all walks of life, not just home owners. I was just talking with an elderly lady and she says her monthly income has gone down because of the stock market. The stock market is  down because of housing. Housing is down because of Banks, Mortgage companies and Freddie and Fannie. We are really tied to a Global Economy and many people will lose their life savings over all of this, and they had nothing to do with the Housing Crisis.  I said months ago that the housing market would really affect more people than most thought at the time. I just did not think it would be this bad.
 
This “Bail Out” is not really a bail out, but a rescue plan. It was not presented well by anyone when it started. The final bill has some pork that should not have been there. Those responsible should be looked at by their voters. It was some one’s Senator. The House Banking and Senate Banking Committees have a large responsibility for the Freddie and Fannie problems. It was brought up with a bill over two years ago and the Democratic, and I am sure, some Republicans shot it down. So here we are in much worse shape because of it. This Rescue Bill in my mind will not cost us any where near the 700 Billion approved and I really think in the end we may recoup the entire amount. My problem is the amount it will cost each of us over the time frame it takes to resolve this .  Lost jobs. Lost savings. Lost opportunities. Lost education. And yes lost lives of our brave military personal.
 
 I know what it feels like to them, as they are all “volunteers” in our nations fighting forces. This is not an easy war, but it is possible to stabilize those countries and and bring security to them and to us at home. I say I know, because I am a retired 21 year, “volunteered” enlisted military person who spent a year in Vietnam. I did not see how our returning GI’s were badly treated by our citizens as I went straight to Germany and could only read about the way our returning Veterans were treated. Please DO NOT do the same to our Current Veterans. I really do not think any of us wanted these current wars and why we got there will be debated for centuries, but we are there, and this time we need to finish what we got into, right or wrong.
 
Oil, and the resulting gas prices are coming down because of the reduced use of gas. I am still driving under 65mph on the freeway and staying very close to the posted speed limit in town. This all causes me to use less gas and therefore not provide more money to those up the food chain. If everyone would slow down we can change the gas usage dramatically. There is noting wrong with 65mph except a few minutes of your time. Lets ALL help.
 
Call me any time At 240-7130  if I can help you.

August 2008 Stats…

The August figures came in where I thought they would, except for the listings under contract, which fell to 878 from 960. I think September will be much lower for Units Sold than in the month of August. Interest rates are moving back below 6% as of this writing. If this is to continue it will help many qualified buyers make that step to home ownership. But I still have that gut feeling that started after I posted my last Blog that things were slowing. I am not seeing the showings on my listings and I think it is partially because of the eligible buyer pool starting to dry up because of some of the changes scheduled for October 1st. Sellers will no longer be able to assist buyers with down payment or closing costs on FHA loans and it is getting harder to qualify on a Conventional loan. The Median Sales price took a big drop as fewer homes and high priced homes sold. This also held true for the Average Sales Price which also dropped to a six month low. This was very much affected by the fewer Million Dollar homes selling. Also fewer of the more expensive home sold last month. Here are the Stats.

There is Bond money still available with up to 7% available for down payment and closing costs on an FHA loan. Call me for information. On October 1st, FHA the down payment goes to 3.5% which is slight increase and the Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) will be based on FICO credit scores. More and more, Government loans are being used today as compared to six months or more ago. Lenders are getting tighter and tighter with Conventional loans. Some are having a tough time getting Private Mortgage Insurance  (PMI) for the loans which can delay or halt your escrow. Right now it looks like the safe bet for a loan is FHA or VA if you qualify.

Call me if I can help you at 520-240-7130

July 2008 Stats…

I think the biggest factor about the July statistics is the fact that the Total Units Sold did go down to 945 as I predicted. The August number should be close to the July number. The number of active listings went down and that is a good thing for sellers as there are fewer homes on the market. New sales have gone down some which is good for the resale. The Builders are still offering incentives of some sort. All the other July stats are very close to last months. I do expect the month of August will be flat but expect sales to pick up in September and October.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 offers some hope for some of the owners who are in financial arrears to refinance   into a new FHA loan at 90% of the new appraised value if the owners lender will allow it to happen. In a sense it is a short loan process that could save the home owner and possibly save the lender much more of a loss if it went to a foreclosure. You can Google the act and get much more information. There are some good things for new buyers in the Act also. Unless the law is changed the seller will not be able to help the buyer with the down payment as of October 1, 2008. There is a Bill in the House trying to change this. You can still get help from Family members if it is available. FHA down payment goes to 3.5% on October 1st.
 
Lenders are getting tighter and tighter on doing loans. You need a good FICO score, good income and the all important down payment.
 
If I can help you call me on my cell phone at 240-7130.