Well the other shoe dropped and things are still going down. Most all categories I list have gone in the wrong direction.The only positive item is the Listings under contract which continues to go up since July when we had a big drop.The number of 1899 shows contracts still in escrow at the end of the month. This is probably due to Short Sales and possibly REO listings that are taking time to close and continue to push the number higher as they do not close for a longer time. Over all we really had a down month.

The figures on this table are subject to change due to late reportings and corrections. These changes are reflected in the next months statisical blog post after we receive the updated information. For this reason you will find inconsistencies if you compare the data on multiple tables.

* Closed during the month.
** For the current month (not the total listing under contract)

We did see a large slowing in foreclosure filings, but on November 9th they starting hitting again. I keep running into owners that move out of their homes as soon as they get the Notice of Sale. Why??? There are so many better ways to save their credit, while trying to get a Loan Modification and then a Short Sale if the Mod will not work. Some times they can be in their home for many months before the problem is resolved. The Lenders really do not want the homes back, when the owner could help get it sold and not have to wait a longer time before they might qualify for a new FHA loan.

I can help with your up coming foreclosure or your Notice of Sale which gives you at least 91 days from the date of the filing.

If you are a buyer, prices are at, or near, the bottom and interest rates are at Historical lows. Let me help you get your loan qualification going and find that great home for you.

Call me at 520-240-7130 or our office at 520-296-7143 with your request for help or start that home buying process.

Before I get into the Statistics I want to do a late update on the Tax Credit Extension. The closing time was extended to September 30, 2010. This will give more time to close for the contracts that were written by April 30th, 2010. I had two Buyers that this has helped.

Now for the June Statistics. I was wrong on the Listings under Contract going down, but it will. It went up by 182 units to 1145 placed in escrow during June. Everything else was as I expected with all the numbers going in the wrong direction. I still think Tucson is going to see another downward slide in prices. Not sure how low, but not where we are right now. As soon as the Economy shows real improvement it will get better.

The figures on this table are subject to change due to late reportings and corrections. These changes are reflected in the next months statisical blog post after we receive the updated information. For this reason you will find inconsistencies if you compare the data on multiple tables.

* Closed during the month.
** For the current month (not the total listing under contract)

Rates are at an all time low and this could bring a few more Buyers into the market. They will have to balance price and interest. A few thousand dollars in price will not overcome a more expensive interest rate if the Buyer plans to live in the home more than five years. So give this some thought if you are a Buyer you may be able to get a price on a home that is a little bit lower and a great rate. Stay away from Short Sales if you want a good rate as it is taking around 5 months to get approval.

If you are or were in the military and have been overseas for at least 90 days from January 1, 2009 to April 30th, 2010 you are still eligible for the Tax Credit. See my May 18th Blog.

Call me if you want to buy or need to sell. I can help you if you need to do a Short Sale also.

Call me at my office 296-7143 or my cell at 240-7130

The figures on this table are subject to change due to late reportings and corrections. These changes are reflected in the next months statisical blog post after we receive the updated information. For this reason you will find inconsistencies if you compare the data on multiple tables.

* Closed during the month.

** For the current month (not the total listing under contract)

I keep reading all these opinions that say we should not bailout anyone who is about to lose their home because they made a bad choice in their purchase and/or loan.

Lets get real here!! The bill that the Democrats and a small number of Republicans  sent out of committee is one of the smartest things our House of Representatives  has done in a long time. The problem is, will the Lenders participate? Click here for a news item that shows me most of the public is uneducated about this bill.  I see people that are complaining have not read the Bill, and the News Media now has a new topic to feed on and misrepresent the truth.

Here is a summarized copy of the bill. Read it for yourself and see that this is not a bailout for the lenders or investors. If it goes the way it is written, the program will more than pay for itself and then some. The Old Lender is the one to voluntarily cover the costs of most everything. I think most of the Lenders will approve the chance for the homeowner to stay in their home and take the Short Sale amount and move on. As this program is voluntary for the current Lender, it simply gives them one more option for dealing with a loss they are about to experience, and the homeowner gets to stay in their home with manageable payments if they qualify.

Now you say “so what”. WHAT is the fact that when YOU try to sell your home In say, Tucson, Arizona you will not have as many of those Short Sales and foreclosures as competition in the sales market. Think about it, and this really will save a lot of people from going into deeper debt, and I am not just talking the homeowner, but the people that lost their job because we all stopped buying and the employer had to let them go. Now tell me what did that have to do with the so called Bailout? Absolutely nothing. We ALL caused that. I can give you lots of other examples, but I think you get the picture.

This again is the best solution I have seen yet. We have two years or more of this current housing problem if we do not do something like this bill. Read the Bill a second time and understand it before you say something that shows me you really do not understand or do not care about it. I am sure this Bill will get changed between the House and Senate but something along this Bill’s lines will help our floundering economy and bring many peoples lives back to a much better position.

Once you understand what they are trying to do, get in touch with your Senator and Congressman and ask them to support something along this Bills Lines. We need to get our President to also understand this is not a Bailout and that it will pay its own way. NO VETO!  I am not a Democrat but HOORAY for the Democrats.  Bipartisan politics is the only way to save our economy and our country!  Now if we can just convince our divided Congress of this.

You have my permission to copy this and send to Your Senator, Representative or whoever you think will help. Use anything in my thoughts that will help you write something to make that contact.

THIS is a very important issue.

WOW!!  What’s going on?!!  Two of Tucson’s major lenders are no longer providing loans and are preparing for bankruptcy.   Another has borrowed 11.5 billion dollars to stay afloat.  Why is this happening?  Well, I think there are many reasons.   Since this is My blog, I am going to give you My thoughts.

The reasons were several:

• There was too much easy credit for buyers who were not qualified for loans during 2004-2006.  
• A steep rise in housing prices through 2005.  During that time I wrote one offer for $11,000 over the asking price of a just listed home.   There were 17 offers that day and our offer was one of the 16 thrown out!
• A ready market for the loans that were purchased by investors and many put into portfolios and sold in groups as securities. 
• Low interest rates.  By the way, interest rates are still low

In late 2005, prices stopped increasing and everyone thought it was just leveling off.  But, as you all know, prices did not remain level.   They slowly began to slide downward.  Today it’s not uncommon to see prices $25,000 lower today than we saw six to twelve months ago.   Here is one of the major problems.  Many people who bought in the last three years can’t sell their homes without coming out of pocket to get it sold.   They have discovered that their loan is now more than they can sell it for.

All the buyers who bought homes via 100% financing or an ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) are now in trouble as they can’t sell.   They can’t refinance as their home currently will not appraise for what is owed.  There are also many investors who bought to flip and suddenly have hit the brick wall and can’t get the house sold.   

As prices come down, I feel the buyer’s are waiting on the sidelines for the market to bottom out.  But, where is the bottom?  “Let’s just wait until we are sure.”   But, how can you be sure?  Fewer homes are selling in both the new and resale sectors.   More homes are coming on the market. 

Sellers are slow in reducing their prices.  They remember when the house down the street sold in one day and at $8,000 more than the asking price.   I call it the “good old days” syndrome.  The danger for them is in following the market down instead of getting ahead of the market and selling their home before the downward trend passes them by.  Sellers are listening to friends, neighbors and other “experts” who are convinced they know more than the Realtors who are closely in tune with the market.   Sellers want to blame their agent.  “They didn’t advertise enough.”  “They didn’t hold enough open houses.”   In truth, as the seller refused to lower the price, it wasn’t long before they were left high and dry and still their “experts” advice was what they listened to.   They didn’t want to paint the back porch or take out the dead tree in the front yard or remove the three kinds of wallpaper you could see from the front door.

I am hearing on some of the talk shows and reading on the Internet that the Federal Reserve should not bail out the big investors.   What are they thinking?!!  We are in a bad slump that stands a good chance of getting worse . . . a lot worse.  The domino effect can have far reaching consequences.   Here is just one example: Think about all the appliances that will not be bought in the next six to twelve months because of fewer homes being purchased.   Who gets laid off?  The Maytag repairman is one of the lucky ones.  Think of all the builder trades that will be forced to let people go.   If you think about it, you will find many areas where good people will be hurt.  Just think of all the people who lost jobs with the two lenders in Tucson.  Some have made it back into the lending profession with other companies, but are some of those companies considering cutbacks?  Are there other companies that will go under?   I sincerely hope not!

I’ve talked with home inspectors, termite/pest control companies and escrow officers as well as lenders and all of them have seen deep cuts in their business.   My next door neighbor is a painting contractor.  He told me his business is way down and he is getting calls from other painters looking for work.

Tell me what you think.

The Federal Reserve lowered the discount rate by ½ percent; but, this is mainly for loans between banks and is not much help to us.   They have to do more!!  They will drag their feet as they are afraid of inflation.  If I could tell them anything it would be : WAKE UP AND DO ENOUGH TO MAKE ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE  TO GET US ALL THROUGH THIS!!!   The country does not need a year of struggling.  I question whether they are in touch with the real work-a-day world. 

If all the people who can’t sell their homes go into foreclosure due to poor loans, we will have entered an arena where recovery could be slow.    My advice would be if you don’t need to sell, don’t!  If we can reduce the number of homes on the market, maybe we can end the downslide and begin to return to normal with slow healthy value increases.   I DO NOT WANT ANOTHER 2005!!

Rest assured, there will still be money available for loans but you better have really good credit with a FICO score of 680+ and a minimum of 10% down payment.   Don’t count on seeing lots of too-good-to-be-true loans and okay low FICO scores.  They will be history. 

If you can’t qualify now, you need to start saving and repair your credit to raise your FICO scores.  Spend smartly.   Pay cash.  Reduce your credit card debt.  And make your payments on time.

Live within your means and watch out for the financial sharks.  If it’s too good to be true, it probably is.   If you are a buyer, save and repair.  If you are a seller who needs to sell, price it right.  Find a Realtor who will tell you the truth and not just what you want to hear.   Be prepared for further price reductions and try to get ahead of the trend!

The foreclosures are just beginning to hit the market and, believe me, it will really pull down prices.  I did a Broker Price Opinion for a company recently and, in my research I found there were 209 properties in that zip code that were in the foreclosure process and will be on the market in the near future.   209!!! And that is just one zip code.  And there are more coming!!  At present in Tucson there are over 6,000 now!

I hope I have given you things to ponder.  There’s much more I could say but this is enough for now.   The new MLS statistics are out and I will get those up soon.

Please email me with any questions or comments.

This past summer with the storms that passed through Tucson and caused flooding and power outages, gave me some thoughts and concerns for my family.  Am I prepared for any type of disaster or stoppage of services?  What if a windshear took out my electricity for two days or more, am I prepared?  Are you prepared?  Here is a link to the Department of Homeland Security for a list of suggest items you should have for any emergency.  I have one item that I plan to add to this list which is a generator and enough gas for 3 or more days.  You can keep your refrigerator and freezer going for 5 or more days with proper use of the generator.  How about a big box fan if it is summer?  At least you will have moving air.  We don’t need to have a national emergency to need this “kit”.  Get yours started soon!