What a difference a month makes. I hate to make too many predictions but I feel by the end of the 3rd Quarter, Tucson will be on its way to healing our local Housing Market. Will we be out of the woods? No, but I think we will see the market leveling and possibly a lower inventory that will cause prices to reverse the downward trend. So many home sellers would be upside down if they tried to sell right now so they will not put their home on the market for a while. At the same time I have seen a slowing of Foreclosure Notices being recorded.

The Foreclosure Notices have decreased, but is that due to fewer people in trouble or the Banks letting it slide while they extract themselves from Court actions that have happened all over the US. The inventory of REO’s has slowed, but I can attest that is due to the Banks not completing the Foreclosure after the 91st day. I have one that has been extended at least five times with no Contract, and the only reason I can see is the problems the Banks had with Robo signers. I am not sure why this should affect Tucson or Arizona as we are a Deed of Trust State which does not require a Court action as do many of the Eastern States who operate under Mortgages. What ever the reason, it has slowed the recordings of Notices. Fewer Notices, fewer REO’s from Foreclosure and fewer Short Sales. As this part of the inventory shrinks and the sellers that are upside down do not try to sell, the Inventory gets smaller and the number of buyers wanting to buy gets larger, we will see prices starting to increase.

The figures on this table are subject to change due to late reportings and corrections. These changes are reflected in the next months statisical blog post after we receive the updated information. For this reason you will find inconsistencies if you compare the data on multiple tables.

* Closed during the month.
** For the current month (not the total listing under contract)

Our State, but mostly in the Phoenix area, has seen its more than fair share of Foreclosures. We are just one of a few States that really got in trouble. But what about those other States that they can sell today and move to Tucson. This too will increase that buyer pool that will help push our prices back up. What is back up? Do not expect large or fast increases, but we will start to dig our way back out of the hole. I hope to see a 3%-5% increase each year for the time coming. This was the norm for many years. Some areas of Tucson did better but this steady increase is much better for our community.

The other point, if you think you will wait, is interest rates. THEY will go back up, and I think sooner than later. I again expect by the end of the 3rd quarter rates will be above 5.5% and probably closer to 6%. Our National economy is really in the tank and there are some good signs, but as long as Congress spends more than is brought in, we are in trouble. With our divided government we will not make much headway to improve our lives. We need a change!!

I personally have been busy and I thank the good Lord for that, but I have time to do more. If I can help you, call me. Use my website www.BarryFotheringham.com to gain access to our MLS as much as you want. If you are a renter use www.AbilityRentalHomes.com to find that rental. If you are a renter, why not see what you can buy instead of renting. It is much closer than you think. Call Elaine DeTour-Spronken at NOVA Home Loans at 520-202-5343 to see what you can do. She is excellent and I have used her for years for my clients. She is very Service orientated and will give you straight answers.

Since I have not had time to really say what I feel and think I have kept my posts short, but this should help you see what is coming in the next six months to a year.

Why not call me and get ready to buy?

Well this month we are close to, or better than last month, but at least we are holding steady. Still a lot of Short Sales and Foreclosures which are dictating our pricing. Interest rates have gone back up by about .5% to about 5% and I expect to see it go even higher.

The figures on this table are subject to change due to late reportings and corrections. These changes are reflected in the next months statisical blog post after we receive the updated information. For this reason you will find inconsistencies if you compare the data on multiple tables.

* Closed during the month.
** For the current month (not the total listing under contract)

We will soon have a better balance in the House and Senate which I am praying will start healing our Economy. The public got shorted when this was not the highest priority back in 2009. The extension of the Bush Tax cuts for two years will help but it still does not let the job makers know where they will be at the end of the two years. We have got to pull in the reins on spending if we are ever going to get out of this debt we are establishing.

Here is a concept, why don’t we work for the public and not your re-election or party. Come to agreement on what’s good for the people who got you there. Stop the Pork add on, and let your request stand by it self, or how about letting the States decide what they want.

Well anyway I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a Happier New Year than this last one.

If I can help you for any Real Estate reason call me at 520-240-7130

The November Statistics show how the $8000 tax credit had a big impact on the Market. We had higher Closed and Listings under contract during October and then things started to drop in November. I have also been seeing fewer showings for this month of December due to the time between the November 30th cutoff of the credit program and the extension of the program. The Short Sales and REO’s got in the way of a quick closing and we still have many months left for Foreclosures and Short Sale properties still entering the market. If you are interested in buying and you may end up with a short sale property you need to get your offer in by mid January to allow time to get the lender approval so you can close before June 30th, 2010. I am experiencing better than 4+ months with Bank of America to approve a short sale.

The figures on this table are subject to change due to late reportings and corrections. These changes are reflected in the next months statisical blog post after we receive the updated information. For this reason you will find inconsistencies if you compare the data on multiple tables.

* Closed during the month.

** For the current month (not the total listing under contract)

Bank of America is now using a new online program to work through the approval process. I had one of my listings with a buyer contract placed into their new system first started as REO-TRANS, and now called Equator. It looks good but I still see the same delays on their end. The faxing is not used now as everything is scanned in as a PDF file. May be hard on the seller to do some of the scanning. Lots of changes. I see I am now allowed to use this method with all of my Bank of America short sales. I also see that two other Lenders will be going into the same system.

If I can help you with a sale or purchasing a property please call me at 240-7130.

I wrote a few articles back in 2006 which were published on various websites, and I thought I would share these again in my Blog over the next few weeks. Not much has changed in the procedures, but three years have past and we have been in a housing crunch for almost those entire three years. I hope this information is beneficial to you.

Use and distribution of this article is authorized as long as the author’s information and copyright is included.

Author: Barry Fotheringham

Article: Pre-qualified? What is that?

Dated: 01/14/2006

You have been looking at homes through a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) link or a Homes magazine and you want to start looking at homes. You call your choice of Real Estate Agent and during the conversation the agent says, “Are you pre-qualified?”

Get pre-qualified?

Before you get ready to buy a home you need to see a lender and start the loan application process. If you are not sure who to contact, talk to your real estate professional for recommendations. I personally like my clients to talk to a loan representative that works directly for a Mortgage Company.

Why do You need to get pre-qualified first?

Most Real Estate agents do not try to do the work of a lender. True professionals usually recognize the need to rely on other true professionals to bring your transaction to a successful close. The Real Estate agent does not want to show properties without the buyer completing a tri-merge credit check through a lender. The cost of the credit report is normally under $25. The credit report will show your credit history and include three FICO scores. It is the middle score that is normally used by the lender. You will also need to complete a loan application. With all the loan programs available, it is up to the loan representative to explain the different type of loans that may be available to you. It is at this point that you will know how much home you can purchase. Be sure you get a “good faith estimate” which shows the costs of the loan and your approximate monthly payment from the lender. This will help your agent structure the costs and financing of your Residential Purchase Contract.

If you are in the state of Arizona your lender will also complete the Arizona Association of REALTORS® form called the “Loan Status Report” (LSR) which must accompany the Residential Purchase Agreement. The Purchase agreement is the most important document, but the LSR is the one item that allows the procedure to continue to an acceptance or a counteroffer. Without the completed LSR it is a total rejection by the Seller. The lender prepares the LSR based on your application and credit report.

I hope you now see the importance of getting pre-qualified before you start looking at properties.

About the author:
Barry has been in the Tucson Real Estate Business for over 30 years. He holds the CRS, GRI, and e-Pro designation with the National Association of REALTORS®. He is the Broker for his family owned business.

Tucson Real Estate For Sale Ability Realty – Barry Fotheringham – Search 1000′s of listings in the Tucson MLS and find valuable information on Tucson!

Let me start off and say that the Numbers on this chart are different from the previous posts, as the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) changed numbers to reflect the statistics that came in after the cutoff date. I did not see this until this month when the numbers were really different. You can compare what they reported in the May post. With that all said, we have really seen improvement with 115 additional sales over the last month and 130 additional Listings under contract during June. The Active listings are down by 245 units. All this is really good and really cements the fact that we have hit the bottom and are starting back out. I still feel we may see a hiccup with the foreclosures but this should be able to be handled by new sales.

The figures on this table are subject to change due to late reportings and corrections. These changes are reflected in the next months statisical blog post after we receive the updated information. For this reason you will find inconsistencies if you compare the data on multiple tables.

* Closed during the month.

** For the current month (not the total listing under contract)

Read my post from a couple of days ago about The $8000 Federal Tax Credit. I feel this program is assured of being extended but not sure if more people will be allowed to use it. The Bill in the Senate calls for $15,000, but I really do not think that will happen. If you are a first time buyer (not owned a home in 3 years) I would advise starting to look now. Homes around $150,000 are getting harder to find in good condition and with the popular amenities (A/C, garage, etc.). There is a lot of junk at the moment. Expect the $150,000 priced homes to go above $152,000 and higher in nicer subdivisions. The current Tax Credit will cause more sales and leave fewer good properties on the market.

If you see something you like, get it under contract right away because it will be gone if you wait! You also need to get your “Loan Status Report” (LSR) from your Lender which means you need to get that loan process started. No LSR, no contract, as the contract calls for it to be part of the contract.

If Congress puts out a bill for say a $8000 Tax Credit (extend the current 1 December cutoff date) for anyone buying a personal residence (except investors) this will make our market move faster and have a lot of owner occupied listed homes. It should bring up the prices of foreclosed and short sale homes.

If you are think of purchasing I would suggest you start looking now. Call or e-mail me for assistance. I can give you the name of a couple of good Loan Representatives. You can reach me on my cell at 520-240-7130.

I have been watching the $8000 Federal Tax Credit and what it has done to help reduce the number of listings for sale in Tucson. I can not put an exact number on the sales purchased by a buyer that qualifies to receive the credit, but I know it is a large portion of our sales. The program is to expire on December 1, 2009. I know there is a bill in the Senate to increase the Federal Tax Credit amount to $15,000 and allow, I believe, anyone purchasing a personal residence to get the credit. I am fairly certain this will happen to extend the time frame, but not sure about the other parts of the bill. My suggestion is to use a larger portion of the “Economic Stimulus“  for home purchases. I would suggest keeping the $8000 or possibly $10,000 Tax Credit and allowing anyone who is purchasing a personal residence to use the program. I would take it to July 1, 2010 for an expiration date. I would not announce the extension until November of 2009 as we want the homes to close that are subject to the current Tax Credit. This is also why I think it should remain at $8000, so it will not cause a buyer to walk away from a transaction they may have in escrow.

1 Billion Dollars would generate 125,000 sales. 10 Billion will generate 1,250,000 sales. We have spent less than 10% of the Economic Stimulus at this time according to the news I am reading and seeing on TV. Why are we doing all these stupid projects that are nice but not what we need to jump start the economy?

Do you realize that each home purchase will generate some sales of appliances, furniture, home products not to mention the movement costs to a mover or rental truck company. Many of these items will generate jobs to sell the items and to produce the items. Now that is what jump starts the economy, not turtle tunnels, mouse habitat or some of the other dumb (see remark at end of this post) projects that are to happen. Fund that at a later date from State Tax revenue.

The new home builders will also go back to work and employ construction people and all related vendors to build, and generate many jobs for each local and State economy.

When will our Federally elected Representatives finally get it through their heads that we can not spend what we do not have. We do not have what it takes for this program but it makes more sense than what I have seen so far.

EDIT: 07/08/2009
We received a comment from a reader who pointed out that some of these special projects, specifically the turtle tunnels, would create many jobs and would help with the economic recovery.  While this is true, and perhaps my use of the word dumb reflected on the individual projects but was meant to reflect on the personal agendas of some politicians, these personal pork barrel projects, in my opinion, have no place in this bill. These projects, if they have true value, should stand on their own merit and not be passed by the use of political magic. These projects probably will have economic value, but this value will be limited primarily to their specific locations.